By George Rostron
Liverpool have only managed to pick up a single point in their last three Premier League games. This has grown the nervous prospect that the Reds could find themselves with no Champions League football next season, as the door remains open for Bournemouth or Brighton to nick 5th spot on May 24th. The fact remains, however, that it is in Liverpool’s hands.
Due to UEFA coefficient rankings, the Premier League was granted an extra place in the Champions League next season, meaning the top 5 are guaranteed a place. This meant going into the game against Aston Villa, both sides needed a victory to secure their spot in next season's Champions League. Aston Villa seemed to be the only team on the pitch to know that, as Liverpool churned out yet another lacklustre performance. Aston Villa came out of the game victorious, winning 4-2, and so they secured a top 5 finish in the League this season, meaning Champions League qualification for them.
The Permutations
Credit: LFC
As it stands, Liverpool sit 5th in the league. They are 4 points ahead of Bournemouth, who are in 6th, and 6 points ahead of Brighton, who are in 7th. Both Bournemouth and Brighton currently have a game in hand over the Reds, so they remain within touching distance. However, if the results go Liverpool’s way, they could secure Champions League football without even kicking a ball. If they don’t, it will be in Liverpool’s hands in what will be a nervy final day of the season.
Brighton face Leeds at Elland Road on Sunday, and Bournemouth face Manchester City on Tuesday at the Vitality Stadium. In their final games of the season, Brighton play at home against Manchester United, and Bournemouth play away at Nottingham Forest. Liverpool will play Brentford at Anfield in their final game.
Premier League Scenarios:
- If Brighton lose to Leeds and Bournemouth lose to Manchester City, then Liverpool will qualify for the Champions League without kicking a ball.
- If Brighton draw to Leeds, they cannot overtake Liverpool on the final day of the season, no matter what.
- If Brighton win against Leeds, they will be 3 points behind Liverpool. They would then have a better goal difference than the Reds, so Liverpool would need to avoid a loss against Brentford only if Brighton beat Manchester United in their final game.
- If Bournemouth draw to Manchester City, they will be 3 points behind Liverpool, but with Liverpool’s superior goal difference, it’s unlikely they would overtake the Reds even if they beat Nottingham Forest and Liverpool lost against Brentford.
- If Bournemouth win against Manchester City, they will be 1 point behind Liverpool. If they then beat Nottingham Forest in their final game, Liverpool would need to win against Brentford.
Alternative Scenarios:
There is a situation in which 6th place gets Champions League football. This would only occur if Aston Villa win the Europa League and finishes in 5th spot, resulting in the European Performance Spot (EPS), moving from 5th to 6th. However, this doesn’t directly impact Liverpool, as the only way Aston Villa finishes 5th is if Liverpool leapfrogs them and finishes 4th themselves. No team below Liverpool can overtake Aston Villa, meaning if Liverpool were to drop down to 6th, Aston Villa would be finishing 4th, which does not move the EPS down a spot.
Whatever happens in Bournemouth and Brighton’s game in hand, Liverpool will want to end the season on a high by beating Brentford. For the manager’s sake, Liverpool needs to put out a good performance along with a convincing win. There is a tangible disconnect between the manager and the fans, with the increase of disgruntled boos accompanying the half-time and full-time whistles, and even substitution choices. If Bournemouth and Brighton both win, it will come as no surprise that Liverpool fans will be nervous going into the game against Brentford. I’d go as far as saying many fans won’t even trust the team to get over the line themselves, hoping results go their way. A sentence that sums up Arne Slot and his Liverpool side this season.
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